Course: Decision Science
June 2022 Examination
1. Three airlines serve a Srinagar. Airline ‘Amira’ has 50% of all the scheduled flights,
airline ‘Biyas’ has 30%, and airline ‘chinar’ has the remaining 20%. Their on-time rates
are 80%, 65%, and 40%, respectively.
Part 1) Draw the Probability tree diagram. (Note: You may use any software for this, like
MS paint, MS office, etc.)
Part 2) A plane has just left on time. What is the probability that it was airline ‘Amira’?
(10 Marks)
2. Rashmi Dhar, manufacturer, and seller of ‘Kashmiri- kahwa’ through E-commers
websites.
She wanted to know the effect of her spending in advertisement of ‘Kahwa’ on the sales,
along with the other factors; ‘number of sales representatives’, ‘customer-satisfaction
ratings’. For this research she has gathered the sales data in the following table, along
with other necessary information.
Part 1) Define dependent and independent variables
Part 2) Write regression model equation only.
Part 3) Run regression analysis in EXCEL (copy all those tables from EXCEL and paste
them in your document).
Part 4) Write the Interpretation of Regression statistics-table, ANOVA- table.
Write an interpretation (by referring P-value/ t-stat) on significant effect of independent
variables on sales.
| Region/
Districts |
Sales of
Kahwa (in INR) |
Spending in
advertise (in INR) |
number of sales
representatives (person) |
customer-satisfaction
ratings (1=highly dissatisfied to 5 = highly satisfied |
| Kupwara | 55328 | 5512 | 1 | 1 |
| Badgam | 56251 | 8337 | 1 | 1 |
| Leh-ladakh | 57126 | 8788 | 4 | 1 |
| Kargil | 58739 | 8828 | 5 | 1 |
| Region/
Districts |
Sales of
Kahwa (in INR) |
Spending in
advertise (in INR) |
number of sales
representatives (person) |
customer-satisfaction
ratings (1=highly dissatisfied to 5 = highly satisfied |
| Punch | 66984 | 9050 | 5 | 2 |
| Rajouri | 70676 | 10150 | 7 | 2 |
| Kathua | 73206 | 11236 | 8 | 2 |
| Baramula | 80571 | 12538 | 8 | 3 |
| Bandipore | 93168 | 13161 | 8 | 3 |
| Srinagar | 99432 | 13448 | 9 | 4 |
(10 Marks)
3.a. According to one survey in India, 75% of Instagram users love REELS. Suppose that 25
Instagram users (randomly selected) have been approached in the university located in vile
parle. They have been asked about their status of like/ dislike the Instagram- REELS.
a) What is the probability that Exactly 15 of them would agree with the claim (or said they
love Insta-REELS)?
b) What is the probability that Exactly 20 of them would agree with the claim (or said they
love Insta-REELS)? (5 Marks)
3.b. ‘Bhartdarshan’ is an Internet-based travel agency wherein customers can see videos of the
cities they plan to visit. The number of hits daily is a normally distributed random variable
with a mean of 10,000 and a standard deviation of 2,400.
a. What is the probability of getting more than 12,000 hits?
b. What is the probability of getting fewer than 9,000 hits? (5 Marks)
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